Dave Roberts: World Series Would Have Been Different Without That One Hit

Henrik Larsen

5 min read

Post on Apr 23, 2025

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Analyzing the "One Hit": Context and Significance

The "one hit" we're analyzing is, of course, the controversial decision to intentionally walk the Dodgers' Manny Machado in Game 4 of the 2018 World Series with a runner on first and one out, leading to a crucial two-run home run by Max Muncy off Clayton Kershaw that would effectively seal the game and change the momentum of the entire series.

The Game Situation: A High-Stakes Scenario

In the bottom of the 8th inning, the Boston Red Sox held a slim 4-3 lead. With Machado at the plate, a dangerous hitter, and a runner on first, the pressure was immense. The bases were empty with a lead and the game on the line. Roberts had a choice to make. The tension was palpable, and every fan was on the edge of their seats.

The Decision-Making Process: Weighing the Risks

Roberts' decision wasn't made lightly. He considered several factors:

• Machado's batting average against left-handed pitching: Machado was a proven threat, and pitching to him presented a significant risk.
• The Red Sox's pitching depth: While walking Machado loaded the bases, it allowed Roberts to bring in a fresh reliever to face the less intimidating hitter, Max Muncy.
• Muncy’s potential: While Muncy was considered a capable hitter, he wasn't seen as the same caliber of threat as Machado. This was a calculated risk.

Roberts' strategic thinking involved analyzing win probabilities based on the potential outcomes of pitching to Machado versus walking him and facing a different batter. The decision underscored a philosophy prioritizing minimizing risk and maximizing chances for a positive outcome.

The Outcome: A Game-Changing Home Run

The immediate result? Muncy hit a towering home run, giving the Dodgers a 6-4 lead that proved insurmountable. This pivotal moment shifted the momentum decisively in favor of Los Angeles, casting a shadow over the remainder of the series. The seemingly calculated risk backfired spectacularly. The impact extended far beyond that single play; it altered the psychological edge.

The Counterfactual: How the World Series Might Have Unfolded Differently

What if Roberts hadn't walked Machado? This counterfactual scenario opens up several possibilities:

Alternative Strategies: Pitting to Machado

Roberts could have opted to pitch to Machado, relying on his pitchers' ability to get him out. The potential benefits included keeping the bases empty and minimizing the risk of a grand slam.

• Success: A successful outcome here would have kept the score 4-3 and shifted the momentum for another inning and potentially secured a Red Sox victory.
• Failure: A hit or home run by Machado could have quickly erased Boston’s lead, turning the tables completely.

Impact on Subsequent Games: A Ripple Effect

The Dodgers' victory in Game 4 was a massive momentum swing. It changed the mental and psychological landscape of the series. The Red Sox played from behind for the rest of the series and never fully recovered from the impact of the one hit that changed the course of the game and eventually the series.

• Loss of confidence: The single decision undermined confidence and could have had far-reaching impacts on the rest of the series.

Dave Roberts' Managerial Style and Legacy: Beyond the "One Hit"

Dave Roberts' managerial style is often characterized by boldness and a willingness to take risks.

Bold Decisions and Risk-Taking: A Defining Characteristic

The Machado decision, though controversial, aligns with his overall approach. Roberts isn't afraid to make unconventional calls, often prioritizing aggressive strategies.

Impact on the Team's Performance: A Mixed Bag

While the Machado decision created controversy, Roberts' leadership throughout his career shows a consistency in this approach to strategy and decision making. There were both successes and failures from this style of strategic gameplay, but it has created a well-defined reputation for Roberts.

• Example 1: His decision to steal second in Game 7 of the 2016 World Series with the first base running was a high-risk, high-reward strategy.
• Example 2: His use of a bullpen by committee approach has proven quite successful in many of his games.

Long-Term Implications: A Lasting Debate

The “one hit” in the 2018 World Series remains a subject of intense debate and analysis amongst baseball fans, analysts, and experts. It continues to shape how we perceive Roberts as a manager, highlighting both his strategic genius and his capacity for bold – and sometimes costly – decisions. This decision will continue to highlight discussions and analytical reviews of strategic gameplay and managerial decision-making for years to come.

The Enduring Impact of Dave Roberts' Decisions

This analysis has shown how one hit, resulting from a single managerial decision by Dave Roberts, profoundly altered the course of the 2018 World Series. The decision-making process, the exploration of alternative outcomes, and the lasting impact on Roberts' legacy are crucial takeaways from this event. The intentional walk to Machado remains a striking example of the high-stakes nature of managerial decisions in baseball, proving that one moment can profoundly impact an entire series. What do you think? Discuss Dave Roberts' managerial strategies and share your opinions on the pivotal role of that one hit in the World Series.