Predicting Trump's Next 100 Days: Focus On Trade Agreements, Deregulation, And Executive Orders

Henrik Larsen

5 min read

Post on Apr 29, 2025

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Trade Agreements: Renegotiation and Protectionism

The Trump administration's approach to trade agreements is characterized by a blend of renegotiation and protectionism. This approach will likely dominate Trump's Next 100 Days.

Potential Renegotiation of Existing Agreements

The focus will likely remain on renegotiating existing agreements such as NAFTA (North American Free Trade Agreement), pushing for reforms within the WTO (World Trade Organization), and re-evaluating trade deals with China.

• NAFTA Renegotiation: Potential outcomes range from minor adjustments to a complete withdrawal. A renegotiated NAFTA could include provisions addressing labor standards, environmental regulations, and intellectual property rights, potentially impacting industries like agriculture and manufacturing in all three countries (the US, Canada, and Mexico).
• WTO Reforms: The administration may seek significant changes to the WTO, potentially challenging its dispute resolution mechanisms and advocating for greater protection for domestic industries. This could lead to increased trade tensions globally.
• Trade Deals with China: Expect continued pressure on China regarding trade imbalances and intellectual property theft. This could result in increased tariffs or other trade restrictions, potentially escalating into a full-blown trade war.
• New Alliances: To counter China's economic influence, the administration might actively seek to forge new alliances with other countries, potentially forming new trade blocs or strengthening existing partnerships.

Increased Protectionist Measures

The administration's commitment to protectionist policies is evident. We can anticipate increased tariffs and import restrictions during Trump's Next 100 Days.

• Impact on American Consumers and Businesses: Increased tariffs will likely lead to higher prices for consumers and decreased competitiveness for some American businesses reliant on imported goods or components.
• Retaliatory Measures: Other countries are expected to retaliate with their own tariffs and trade barriers, creating a ripple effect across the global economy.
• Job Creation vs. Job Losses: The net effect on job creation versus job losses remains uncertain. While protectionist measures might safeguard some domestic jobs, they could also lead to job losses in industries affected by retaliatory tariffs or decreased export opportunities.
• Economic Impact on Specific Sectors: Sectors like agriculture and manufacturing are particularly vulnerable to shifts in trade policy, as they heavily rely on exports and imports. The impact on these sectors will need careful observation throughout Trump's Next 100 Days.

Deregulation: Easing Environmental and Financial Restrictions

Another key focus of the administration is deregulation, particularly in the environmental and financial sectors. This will significantly influence the landscape during Trump's Next 100 Days.

Environmental Regulations

Expect rollbacks of various environmental protection laws.

• Impact on Environmental Conservation: Weakening environmental regulations will likely lead to increased pollution and harm to natural resources, potentially jeopardizing long-term environmental sustainability.
• Clean Energy Initiatives: Reductions in funding and support for clean energy initiatives could hinder the transition towards a more sustainable energy future.
• Economic Benefits vs. Environmental Costs: The administration may emphasize the potential short-term economic benefits of deregulation, but these gains need to be weighed against the potential long-term environmental and social costs.
• Public Health Implications: Relaxing environmental regulations can have significant consequences for public health, leading to increased air and water pollution-related illnesses.

Financial Regulations

Easing of Dodd-Frank and other financial regulations is a high probability.

• Impact on Financial Industry and Economic Growth: Deregulation might boost short-term economic growth by freeing up the financial industry, but it also carries the risk of increased instability.
• Increased Financial Risk: Relaxed regulations could increase systemic risk within the financial system, potentially leading to another financial crisis.
• Benefits and Drawbacks for Consumers: Consumers may see some short-term benefits, like easier access to credit, but this could also expose them to greater financial risk.
• Impact on Market Stability: Deregulation could impact market stability, potentially leading to increased volatility and decreased investor confidence.

Executive Orders: A Powerful Tool for Policy Implementation

Executive orders will remain a powerful tool for implementing the administration's agenda, bypassing the need for Congressional approval. Understanding their potential impact is crucial for comprehending Trump's Next 100 Days.

Executive Order Strategy

The administration's heavy reliance on executive orders to enact policy changes will continue.

• Examples and Impact: Past executive orders have already had significant impacts on various policy areas, setting the stage for similar actions in the coming period.
• Legal Challenges: Many executive orders face legal challenges, leading to uncertainty regarding their ultimate implementation and effectiveness.
• Political Polarization: The use of executive orders can increase political polarization, further dividing public opinion and hindering bipartisan cooperation.
• Effectiveness in Achieving Policy Goals: The effectiveness of executive orders in achieving long-term policy goals remains debatable, often depending on subsequent Congressional action and judicial review.

Focus Areas for Executive Orders

Several policy areas are likely targets for future executive orders during Trump's Next 100 Days.

• Immigration: Expect executive orders related to immigration policy, potentially focusing on border security, immigration enforcement, and visa regulations.
• Healthcare: Further actions concerning the Affordable Care Act (ACA) are anticipated, possibly through executive actions to weaken or dismantle key provisions.
• Other Policy Areas: Other potential areas for executive orders include environmental regulations, energy policy, and trade policy, further expanding on previously implemented measures. These orders may face significant public and legal opposition. The long-term consequences of such actions remain to be seen.

Conclusion

Predicting Trump's Next 100 Days requires close attention to the administration's likely actions regarding trade agreements, deregulation, and the continued use of executive orders. These areas are poised for significant policy shifts with far-reaching consequences for the American economy and global landscape. Understanding these potential changes is critical for businesses, investors, and citizens alike. Stay informed and continue to monitor developments during these crucial Trump's Next 100 Days to navigate this period of uncertainty. Continuous analysis of Trump's Next 100 Days is vital in making informed decisions.